Alaskan Wildfires Pose Risk of Rapid, Uncontrollable Global Warming

In the last two decades, Alaska has witnessed a significant increase in wildfire activity, with three of the four highest-acreage fire years occurring since the turn of the century [1]. This escalating trend has led to a 2.5-fold increase in wildfire activity compared to the previous two decades [1].

This surge in wildfires has far-reaching implications, particularly on a global scale. As these forests burn more frequently and intensely, they transition from carbon sinks to net emitters, contributing to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and exacerbating global climate change [1]. Burning peatlands in northern Alaska releases mercury and other pollutants, further affecting atmospheric chemistry and global pollution cycles [5].

The health consequences of unchecked wildfires are equally alarming. Wildfire smoke contains fine particulate matter and toxic substances such as mercury, posing respiratory, cardiovascular, and neurological health risks to nearby communities and to populations affected by transported smoke [5]. The toxic mercury released disrupts ecosystems and can bioaccumulate in food chains, impacting subsistence lifestyles of Indigenous and local peoples [5].

The environmental changes and pollution can also threaten societal resilience. Increased wildfire frequency and severity strain firefighting resources and emergency response systems, leading to greater property loss, disruptions to infrastructure, and displacement of communities, especially in rural and Indigenous regions of Alaska [1][4][5]. The ecological changes and pollution can alter traditional land use, food security, and cultural practices, potentially leading to social and economic instability [1][4][5].

In 2021, boreal fires accounted for 23% of global vegetation wildfire emissions, more than double their typical share [2]. The intensifying wildfire patterns in Alaska underscore the urgent need for climate action and improved fire management strategies to mitigate the potential for a "runaway climate change scenario" [6].

Alaska's fire management agencies are adapting by utilizing remote sensing tools, implementing science-based decision-making processes, increasing cooperation among various agencies, and focusing on advanced planning and preparation [3]. However, the disruption not only threatens the boreal forests, which store a substantial portion of the world's terrestrial carbon, but also poses serious health risks from wildfire smoke [5][1][4].

Tundra fires are expected to burn twice as much acreage and occur four times more frequently than historical averages [1]. Thawing permafrost, accelerated by wildfires, releases additional carbon dioxide and methane [1]. These factors, combined with the increasing frequency and intensity of Alaskan wildfires, create a dangerous feedback loop with climate change, as they release significant amounts of carbon, exacerbating global warming and leading to more fires [1].

The economic burden associated with these health impacts could reach $240 billion by 2050 [4]. The long-term implications of increased wildfire activity in Alaska on global carbon emissions, human health, and societal stability are significant and multifaceted [5][1][4].

References:

Alaska Wildland Fire Science Stewardship Program. (2020). Alaska Wildfire: A Changing Climate, A Changing Landscape. Retrieved from https://www.fs.usda.gov/alaska/alaska-wildland-fire-science-stewardship-program/wildland-fire-science-stewardship-program-publications
WMO. (2021). Wildfires and Climate Change: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation. Retrieved from https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wildfires-and-climate-change
Alaska Division of Forestry. (2021). Alaska Wildland Fire Management. Retrieved from https://dnr.alaska.gov/forestry/fire/
World Health Organization. (2018). Health and Climate Change: Impacts and Risks. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240015334
US Environmental Protection Agency. (2019). Mercury in the Arctic: Current Status and Trends. Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/arctic-power/mercury-arctic-current-status-and-trends
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2021). Arctic Report Card: Update for 2020. Retrieved from https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/2020/