Emerging global danger: Research pinpoints regions of heightened zoonotic risk for potential pandemics
In a groundbreaking study, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has identified several main drivers for the emergence of zoonotic diseases that can lead to epidemics and pandemics. The study, titled "Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world," sheds light on the complex interplay between environmental change, human activity, and biological factors in wildlife reservoirs.
The study underscores the significant role of climate change and environmental alterations in shaping the habitats and behaviour of wildlife reservoirs and vectors, thereby increasing the risk of disease spillover to humans. Globalization and international movement, with their facilitation of the spread of zoonotic pathogens across regions and continents, also feature prominently as key drivers.
Invasive alien species, particularly mammals and waterfowl, serving as hosts for zoonotic pathogens, increase opportunities for new disease transmission. Human encroachment and land-use change, including the expansion of agriculture, deforestation, and urbanization, heighten human-wildlife contact, further raising spillover risks.
Ecological and host dynamics, such as the role of juvenile and subadult bats in viral shedding and co-infections, create conditions for viral recombination and the emergence of novel viruses. These drivers interact to create an environment conducive to the emergence and spread of zoonotic infections.
Using machine learning and satellite data, the JRC study has identified global hotspots of risk, particularly in Latin America and Oceania. Notably, Papua New Guinea and the Republic of Congo have the highest country-specific epidemic risk, according to the index.
The study's findings emphasise the need for integrated approaches that combine climate adaptation, sustainable land management, and public health preparedness. It demonstrates the value of predictive modelling in identifying high-risk zones and guiding targeted interventions.
The Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) is actively working to ensure the availability and accessibility of affordable medical countermeasures. The European Commission's Medical Countermeasures Strategy supports the work of HERA.
The study provides a global risk map and an epidemic risk index for each country, which can inform efforts to prepare for and respond to potential outbreaks, thereby reducing the risk of future epidemics. The study is focused on assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world.
The geographic spread and emergence of these threats are increasingly driven by climate change, according to the study. The findings underscore the urgent need for concerted global action to mitigate the risks posed by zoonotic diseases.
- The study reveals that climate change, environmental alterations, and human activities contribute significantly to shaping habitats and behavior of wildlife reservoirs and vectors, thereby increasing the risk of disease spillover to humans.
- The study emphasizes that globalization and international movement facilitate the spread of zoonotic pathogens across regions and continents, making them prominent drivers of zoonotic disease emergence.
- Invasive alien species, particularly mammals and waterfowl, can serve as hosts for zoonotic pathogens, increasing opportunities for new disease transmission due to human encroachment and land-use changes like agriculture, deforestation, and urbanization.
- The findings of the study highlight the need for integrating climate adaptation, sustainable land management, and public health preparedness strategies to reduce the risks posed by zoonotic diseases, particularly in global hotspots identified in Latin America and Oceania.
