humans predicted to undergo a rapid population decline at a pace surpassing initial scientific estimations
Global Population Growth May Slow Down Faster Than Expected, According to New Study
The world's population growth rate is projected to slow down and potentially reverse earlier than the United Nations (UN) forecasts, according to a study published in The Lancet. While the UN projects the population to peak at around 10.4 billion during the 2080s and then begin a gradual decline around 2100, the Lancet study suggests these estimates may be too optimistic, indicating the peak could occur sooner and population shrinkage start earlier.
The UN forecasts population growth to nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, with a peak in the 2080s and decline in the 22nd century. However, the Lancet study, funded by the Gates Foundation, signals the peak might come faster due to sustained low fertility rates globally. As of 2022, about two-thirds of the world’s population lives in areas where fertility is below the 2.1 births per woman replacement level, implying population decline unless offset by migration.
Sixty-one countries are projected to experience population decreases of 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, driven by low fertility and emigration. This trend challenges the UN's current projections, as the evidence from The Lancet study highlights a faster approach to peak population and an earlier shift to long-term population decline.
The cumulative effect of lower fertility could lead to a more substantial deceleration of global population growth in the second half of the century. By 2050, the world's population is projected to nearly reach 9.7 billion. A gradual decline in the world's population is predicted to begin around the turn of the century in 2100.
It's important to note that the potential impact of AI on the global population remains uncertain, as stated in the paragraph. The UN revealed in 2022 that two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman. This trend, if maintained over several decades, could have a substantial impact on global population growth, as stated by the UN's Department of Economic and Social Affairs' director of the population division, Jon Wilmoth.
References: [1] The Lancet, "The global demographic transition: prospects for a low-fertility world" (2022)
- The 'Lancet' study, funded by the Gates Foundation, suggests that 'general-news' regarding the global demographic transition might indicate a peak population sooner due to sustained low fertility rates worldwide.
- In the study published in 'The Lancet', it is proposed that the 'health-and-wellness' aspect of lower fertility rates globally could lead to a more substantial deceleration in 'science' areas such as environmental-science and population studies, challenging current United Nations (UN) projections.
