Is there a potential ban on smoking?
Trends and Future Predictions: A Decline in Smoking Rates
Smoking, once a symbol of modernity and self-confidence, is increasingly becoming a niche phenomenon in Germany, with the proportion of smokers among both men and women reaching new lows. This shift is particularly prominent among the younger generation.
In the 1950s, nine out of ten men were regular tobacco consumers, while among women, the figure was relatively low at two out of ten. However, the trend has reversed dramatically over the past seven decades, with the proportion of smokers converging between the genders (see graph). From the 2010s, this proportion dropped sharply, reaching its lowest point as of now. Will smoking eventually become obsolete?
Awareness campaigns and tobacco advertising restrictions, coupled with smoking bans in public places, have intensified since the turn of the millennium. Sanctions on smoking were gradually implemented across various sectors, including schools, cinemas, and nightclubs. The influence of these measures on the decline in smoking rates is challenging to quantify, but the data shows a clear trend.
The consumption of alternative nicotine products like e-cigarettes, tobacco heaters, and water pipes in shisha bars also gained popularity post-2000. However, the consumption of water pipes has been on the decline since 2018, while e-cigarettes and tobacco heaters continue to increase, albeit at a mediocre rate.
Notably, there is a growing antipathy towards smoking among the youth. At the dawn of the millennium, almost three out of ten 12- to 17-year-olds smoked. Today, it is fewer than one in ten young people. In 2007, the legal age for purchasing tobacco products was raised from 16 to 18, and in 2023, only seven out of a hundred young people identified as either regular or occasional smokers, making young adults one of the age groups with the highest proportion of non-smokers in Germany.
Globally, the trend mirrors that of Germany. In almost all countries, the proportion of smokers in the population is decreasing. Some exceptions include Jordan and Egypt, where the proportion of smokers has increased, while in Indonesia, the number of smokers has been steadily rising since the turn of the millennium. In an attempt to eliminate smoking entirely within their populations, some countries, like Belgium, Finland, France, and Ireland, have set ambitious goals. The European Union, for instance, aims to reduce tobacco consumption to less than five percent of the population by 2040 with its "Tobacco-Free Generation" target. While existing measures are having an effect, the rate of decline is only moderate, according to a study conducted in 2024. To achieve the desired outcome, experts recommend "innovative strategies and measures."
For those looking to quit smoking, RTL's "Finally Non-Smoker" show featuring Wolfram Kons, Lilly Becker, and Christian Häckl is scheduled to air on Saturday, May 31, 2025, at 12:30 PM.
Source: ntv.de
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It's worth noting that the global decline in smoking prevalence remains high, with certain regions like the Eastern Mediterranean Area reporting alarming rates of youth smoking, particularly among boys (43%) and girls (20%). Additionally, the gap between men and women in tobacco use is narrowing, with more women and girls taking up smoking, potentially exposing them to increased health risks.
Meanwhile, efforts to meet the 2025 global voluntary targets for reducing tobacco use persist, with a focus on implementing tobacco control policies. The WHO Global Report on Prevalence of Tobacco Use (2000-2025) highlights that while global trends show a decline, regional variations persist, emphasizing the need for tailored control measures. The advent of new nicotine products like e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products introduces challenges in controlling smoking rates among vulnerable groups, particularly youth. The smoking cessation market, driven by advancements in digital health, personalized medicine, and targeted therapies, is projected to grow further, potentially reducing smoking rates in the future.
Balancing harm reduction with youth protection will be crucial, especially with the rise of e-cigarettes. Strengthening policies such as banning flavors, increasing taxes, and restricting advertising will remain important strategies for reducing smoking rates. Educating the public about the health risks associated with tobacco use is essential to maintaining the downward trend in smoking prevalence across different age groups.
Advocating for health-and-wellness, the World Health Organization encourages efforts to address the alarming rates of youth smoking in regions like the Eastern Mediterranean Area, where boys (43%) and girls (20%) are susceptible to tobacco use. As more women and girls take up smoking, mental-health and nutrition education become crucial to combat the potential health risks.
In the face of new nicotine products like e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products, it is essential to implement innovative strategies and measures in tobacco control policies, as outlined in the WHO Global Report on Prevalence of Tobacco Use (2000-2025). The rise of the smoking cessation market, leveraging advancements in digital health, personalized medicine, and targeted therapies, offers potential for future reduction in smoking rates.
To strike a balance between harm reduction and youth protection, strengthening policies such as banning flavors, increasing taxes, and restricting advertising on these products will continue to be important strategies in reducing smoking rates, both globally and nationally.
