Potential HIV infections surge in South Africa due to US funding reductions, predicts recent research (2028 estimate)
US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) fund cut could lead to a catastrophic surge in HIV infections and deaths in South Africa. A new study, commissioned by the national health department of South Africa, shows that the cancellation of PEPFAR funding would result in an additional 150,000 to 295,000 new HIV infections by 2028, unless the South African government steps in. This drastic reduction in access to HIV treatment and prevention services could lead to approximately 56,000 additional deaths in South Africa alone due to this funding withdrawal.
These findings are based on modelling studies by researchers at the University of Cape Town and the University of the Witwatersrand. On a larger scale, a modelling study led by a University of Oxford research team predicts that a reduction or elimination of PEPFAR funding in Sub-Saharan Africa would have devastating effects by 2030. An estimated 500,000 children could die from AIDS-related causes within the next five years, and around 1 million children could become infected with HIV. Furthermore, approximately 2.8 million children could be orphaned due to AIDS deaths among parents in the region.
The cessation of PEPFAR funding threatens to reverse decades of progress in HIV/AIDS control. The alarming repercussions of this decision include a resurgence of HIV infections, preventable deaths, and a surge in the number of children orphaned by AIDS. These outcomes underscore the critical importance of maintaining PEPFAR funding or ensuring effective replacement strategies to sustain HIV treatment, prevention, and community support services.
- The US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) fund cut may trigger a catastrophic increase in HIV infections and fatalities in South Africa.
- The South African health department commissioned a study showing that PEPFAR funding cancellation could cause 150,000 to 295,000 new HIV infections by 2028.
- Without PEPFAR funding, approximately 56,000 additional deaths may occur in South Africa due to HIV/AIDS.
- University of Cape Town and University of the Witwatersrand researchers conducted modelling studies on the impact of PEPFAR funding withdrawal.
- A University of Oxford-led study predicts that reduction or elimination of PEPFAR funding in Sub-Saharan Africa could have disastrous consequences by 2030.
- Up to 500,000 children could die from AIDS-related causes within the next five years due to PEPFAR funding reductions.
- Approximately 1 million children could become infected with HIV due to reduced PEPFAR funding in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- An estimated 2.8 million children could be orphaned due to AIDS deaths among parents in the region.
- Decades of progress in HIV/AIDS control could be reversed by the withdrawal of PEPFAR funding.
- A resurgence of HIV infections, preventable deaths, and an increase in the number of children orphaned by AIDS are potential outcomes of PEPFAR funding cuts.
- Maintaining PEPFAR funding is essential for keeping HIV treatment, prevention, and community support services accessible.
- Effective replacement strategies for PEPFAR funding are needed to sustain HIV treatment, prevention, and community support services.
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