Worldwide Locations Pinpointed as Zoonotic Risk Sites for Potential Future Pandemics
In a groundbreaking study, researchers have mapped out the global risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential, providing a valuable tool for preparedness and response efforts. The study, titled "Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world," was published in Science Advances.
The study ranks Papua New Guinea and the Republic of Congo at the top of the epidemic risk index, with around 3% of the world's population living in areas of high and very high risk. These areas are primarily concentrated in Latin America, Oceania, Asia, Africa, and to a lesser extent, Europe and North America.
The World Health Organization (WHO) priority diseases list, which includes COVID-19, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), Ebola virus disease and Marburg virus disease (MVD), Lassa fever, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Nipah virus disease (NiV), Rift Valley Fever (RVF), Zika, and a placeholder for an unknown "Disease X," are all accounted for in the study. However, the analysis does not include an assessment of the link between human activities and the outbreak risk of COVID-19.
The study highlights the importance of understanding the factors driving the emergence of zoonotic diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential. Primary drivers include changes in land use and deforestation, intensified livestock production, wildlife trade and consumption, ecological perturbations, climate change, globalization, and human activity.
Changes in land use, human settlements in proximity of forested areas, increased population and livestock density, and biodiversity loss contribute to the risk of disease outbreaks. The JRC modelling study uses machine learning and satellite data to identify 9.3% of the global land surface as high or very high risk for disease outbreaks of Ebola, Zika, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, and other WHO priority diseases.
The study underscores the need for integrated approaches combining climate adaptation, sustainable land management, and public health preparedness. It also emphasizes the value of predictive modelling in identifying high-risk zones and guiding targeted interventions.
The Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) has been working to ensure the availability and accessibility of affordable medical countermeasures, paying particular attention to climate-sensitive priority threats identified in the JRC study, such as Ebola, Zika, and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever. The European Commission's Medical Countermeasures Strategy reaffirms the work of HERA.
The geographic spread and emergence of these threats are increasingly driven by climate change. The study suggests that climate conditions, including rising temperatures, higher annual precipitation levels in some areas, and water deficits in others, raise the risk of disease outbreaks. The study indicates that 6.3% of the global land surface is at high risk, and 3% is at very high risk, with most of these areas being in Latin America and Oceania.
The findings of this study can provide valuable insights for preparing for and responding to potential outbreaks, ultimately helping to reduce the risk of future epidemics. By understanding the factors driving the emergence of these diseases and focusing on targeted interventions, we can better protect ourselves and the world from the threat of epidemic and pandemic diseases.
- The study, published in Science Advances, ranks Papua New Guinea and the Republic of Congo at the top of the epidemic risk index, with health-and-wellness for around 3% of the world's population residing in areas of high and very high risk.
- The study in Environmental Science also highlights the importance of understanding the factors driving the emergence of zoonotic diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential, such as changes in land use and deforestation, intensified livestock production, wildlife trade and consumption, ecological perturbations, climate change, globalization, and human activity.
- The use of machine learning and satellite data in the study identifies 9.3% of the global land surface as high or very high risk for disease outbreaks of Ebola, Zika, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, and other WHO priority medical-conditions.
- The Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) is working to ensure the availability and accessibility of affordable medical countermeasures, focusing on climate-sensitive priority threats identified in the study, like Ebola, Zika, and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, which are increasingly driven by environmental changes, including climate change.
